Daily match picks

Dominic Thiem 1.51, Alexander Zverev 2.92

Due to start at 8:30 am

Thiem leads their previous matches 6-2. Their last match was in November last year on an indoor hard court. Thiem won that one in straight sets. They have only played 1 match on a hard court. That was in Beijing in October 2016. Zverev won in 3 sets.

Overall results favour Thiem in the last 12 months. He won 74% of his matches compared to 63% for Zverev. On hard courts he leads 78% v 67% matches won. 

Zverev dropped his first set of the tournament in his quarter final with Stan Wawrinka. There has been less drama in Zverev’s journey to the semi finals. He has just quietly gone about his business. That may not work in his favour. Often when a player is on their way to a slam final they have a match where they really have to fight. It “battle hardens” them for the tougher matches that are to come.

Thiem needed 5 sets to beat Alex Bolt in the second round. Taylor Fritz also took a set from him and of course Nadal won a set. Thiem’s win over Nadal could have taken a lot out of him Not only physically but emotionally. There is a chance that he will be a little “flat” at the start of this match.

Their stats for the tournament are very even. Both players have served extremely well holding around 90% of their service games.  If Thiem can maintain his form from the last match he will win. One of the reasons he played so well was because Nadal was on the other side of the net. Thiem was forced to raise his level to beat the Spaniard. He will had fed off the atmosphere and energy that players like Nadal, Djokovic and Federer create just by being there. It will a great atmosphere tonight but it won’t be the same.

This is Zverev’s first semi final. Thiem has been in the French Open final for the last 2 seasons and also made the semi finals of the French Open in 2017 ( lost to Nadal in all 3 matches). Zverev is the more mentally fragile of the 2 players. Thiem has matured into a very strong player and his mental strength is no longer in question.

This should be an amazing match. Lay Thiem around 1.35 and remove the liability at 1.70. Back Thiem if he goes a break behind or if he loses set 1. This won’t be over in 3 sets. Lay the set 1 winner regardless of who wins it.

Update: Great match! Both suffered with nerves. Zverev took the first set. Thiem eventually took the second. The third and fourth sets went to tie breaks and Thiem was mentally stronger.
Thiem won 3-6, 6-4, 7-6, 7-6 

 

Simona Halep 1.63, Garbine Muguruza 2.56

Due to start around 4:30 am

Muguruza leads their previous matches 4-2. Their last match was in the French Open semi final in May 2018. Halep won in straight sets. Muguruza’s last win was in Cincinnati in August 2017. She won on a hard court in 2 sets. She has won both their hard court matches. One of Muguruza’s wins was due to withdrawal.

Overall results favour Halep. They are very evenly matches on hard courts in the last 12 months.

Stats for the tournament are pretty even but all slightly favour Halep.

Halep has not lost a set so far. She had a short wobble in the first 3 rounds. He first set with Jennifer Brady was very close and Halep was put under a lot of pressure. After she took the set in a tie break she ran away with the second set. In the next 2 rounds she had a decent lead towards the end of the match but made hard work of closing the second sets out.

Elise Mertens was always playing catch up in the fourth round but in each set when she had finally fought back to level the set score Halep broke her again and served out the set. In the quarter final Anett Kontaveit was totally outplayed and won just 2 games.

Muguruza has done well so far in 2020 but some of her matches have been closer than we might have expected. This tournament started the same way. In the first round Shelby Rogers took their opening set 6-0. The 155th ranked American won just 1 game in the next 2 sets. I had expected Ajla Tomljanovic to take their second round match to a deciding set which is exactly what happened.

Muguruza’s last 3 rounds have seen much better performances from her. Elina Svitolina has had some problems in 2020 and is yet to find her best form. She took just 3 games. Kiki Bertens might have been expected to give Muguruza a real run for her money but was also beaten in straight sets. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has mad a very strong start to the year and was a break up in both their sets. In fact she was twice a break up in the first set but was also beaten in 2 sets.

Muguruza seems to be peaking at the right time and she can take at least a set tonight. We have a decent chance of this going to 3 sets. I give Halep a small edge. Lay Halep if she breaks first. Remove your liability when Muguruza breaks back. Back Halep around 1.95 or if she loses set 1.