Daily match picks

When I started to find out about Betfair trading a couple of years ago the amount of information that was freely available seemed quite limited. There were fewer forums. Fewer blogs. Those who obviously knew what they were talking about weren’t about to give away their “edge”.

Any information you could find had to be pieced together from various sources. That situation has definately changed. Now there are several forums, dozens and dozens of blogs and chatrooms where the new breed of “experts” reside to hand out their wisdom to the “newbies”. Does that make it easier for a new trader to find the information that they crave? As a new trader entering the trading community ( I use the word community in the same context as in Basra City is a community) they are keen to grasp the information that is given. The problem is that its an easy mistake to make to assume that the information is accurate and also given for the right reasons.

Until you know a little of the terminology and culture its virtually impossible to sort the crap from the quality. In a forum or chatroom a particular approach or suggestion can be dismissed by a seemingly experienced trader. But where can the pedigree of the trader be checked? Are they dismissing an idea because they have tried it over many months and found it to have little merit or are they simply dismissing it because they can’t make it work themselves? Did they join the forum 2 days ago or 2 years ago?

One particular example is based around the recent problems with the tennis scoreboards.  When I started to learn the tennis markets I didn’t have live pics. So I learned to read the market itself and to use a scoreboard to confirm that I had read it correctly. By looking at when the money comes in ( or leaves) the market, how much comes in etc you can pretty much read what’s happening. The scoreboard can be several seconds behind but that’s ok as we are using it as confirmation only. This only works when the match has a good amount matched and also has plenty of money entering the market inplay. there have been recent situations where there was a large amount of money matched on a game before it started but then relatively little money coming in during the game. You also need the scoreboard to be uniformly slow. If its always 7 seconds behind then thats not a problem. If one minute its 7 seconds behind and then 15 seconds behind its of little use.

During Skype sessions I have had participants who had Live Sky pics while I was trading purely from a scoreboard and comments were made about how accurately I was reading what was happening. For example a move in favour of the receiver but with lower bet amounts than you would expect to see for a point being won usually indicates that its second serve.

I have advised new traders to learn to read the market in this way but have had the technique dismissed as being impossible/unworkable for new traders.  To learn anything new you have to start somewhere and something like trading takes months and sometimes years to get to grips with.  The negative comments may disuade newer traders from attempting to learn something new.

As in every large group there are many negative attitudes among traders. There are also some very positive individuals but at first glance it can be difficult to differentiate between the two types.

There is a large amount of superb info for the new trader and also a hell of a lot of complete crap. There are ofcourse many guides, ebooks etc out there which claim to have the answers in a concise package. I can talk about this type of information from both sides. Both as a customer and as a vendor. I have bought the occasional ebook in the past. Most have been very poor and a couple have been little more than a rip off. Howver some have contained enough info to justify the price tag.

You need to do some research before buying anything like this. Don’t necessarily rely on the views of the people who simply shout the loudest. With my vendor’s hat on I can speak from experience that the vast majority of people who criticise my Tennis Guide have never read it! They see that I am selling information and therefore it MUST be a scam. These people have no credibility. If they read the Guide and THEN criticise it then thats fair enough. But from the new trader’s viewpoint who reviews the reviewers? 😉

So to any new traders who may be reading this you have access to a larger amount of information than was around a couple of years ago. So its easier to find but then you need to research the credibility of the information and those who are recommending or criticising it.

Does that means its easier to learn trading? I don’t think so.

 

I’ve never had a blog before. In fact I always said I wouldn’t write one. Not that I have anything against them. I regularly read some excellent ones such as Alistair Hamilton’s betyourlife blog, The Real Moaner’s (although Craig hasn’t posted for a while) and Adam Heathcote’s amazing blog on pre-race trading. All 3 of these guys put their heart and soul into  every post. You get to find out about the man behind the keyboard.

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This blog is a bit different, but then most things I do tend to be a bit different. Traders who write blogs often cite the reason that it helps their trading discipline because you don’t want to have to post that you screwed up. That makes sense to me. But this was never meant to be a diary of my journey through this trading lark.  As I have said before it wasn’t even supposed to be a blog in the first place. I was using the blog format as an easy way to update the members area with the daily match tips. I certainly didn’t want to be giving the tips away for nothing.

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I’m glad I made a mistake during the setting up of the blog. That mistake allowed the blog to be found by search engines. Something that I was to work on a fair bit in the months that followed. Today if someone googles and includes betfair and tennis in their search then my site will be on page 1.

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Once it was apparent that people were interested in reading my rubbish it dawned on me that I could use it as a sales tool. I wanted more members of my tennis trading  group so that we could help the new guys and develop new strategies between us. I genuinely get a kick out of helping someone learn tennis trading.

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As I was using the blog to post daily match tips and advice they had to be good. No one was going to sign up with a guy who can’t tip a bag of rubbish.

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As I was setting it up I was more interested in the content. I knew what I wanted to put on the site and I overlooked its appearance. I had several offers to make the site look more professional. They were being kind and helpful and their offers were greatly appreciated but what they were actually saying was, ” your site looks crap, let me do it properly for you.” I was adding to the blog and the tradesharktennis site at such a rate that I wasn’t taking a step back to look at what I was presenting to the world.

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I have reasonable skills as a designer and graphic artist but I wasn’t using them. I had thrown together a header image for the blog which was ok but I could do a lot better. I had an email from a guy who had taken the time to put together an alternative header image for the blog. I hadn’t spoken to him before and was extremely grateful that someone could take the time to help me. I thought I had saved his email but am embarrassed to say i can’t find it but as you can see I loved the image and still use it.

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I had lots of guys offering advice on what could be improved. All of it was given for positive reasons and I took it as a bit of a compliment that my true self was coming across in the blog and site and people felt I was approachable.

Quite recently I had an email from a new member who said he liked the site but it was clear that I didn’t proof read my content. This was a kick up the arse because I couldn’t argue. I normally have an excellent eye for detail and set myself extremely high standards for everything I do. However in my haste to move the sites forward I was still rushing everything. I was briefly checking content but wasn’t being professional enough to check it thoroughly. I thanked him for his comments and said I would have the whole site checked by the weekend. I had a few mnutes spare that evening and decided to check a few pages. To say that I was embarrassed by what I found is a massive understatement. There weren’t just spelling mistakes but also whole paragraphs that hadn’t been edited properly. Some of it just didn’t’ make sense. There were even a couple of errors on the members home page.

TOTALLY, TOTALLY, TOTALLY unacceptable. I spent the next 3 hours going through every page and correcting what I found. People were paying good money  for this crap!

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Wordpress blogs are free. Thats why I chose them in the first place! It turned out to be an excellent choice. If its your first time with blogging there’s a bit to get your head round to customise it but after that its really a great tool.

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Everything seemed to be going ok. The tips were generally good and I was getting more readers every week. people were signing up for the Trading Guide at a decent rate and my own trading was actually improving which I put down to the fact that I was being forced to make the research for the matches of a higher quality than I might do for myself.

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One morning I was at work and I received an email from one of the members that the blog had been suspended It wasn’t long since I had finished posting the day’s selections. I checked the site and there was a message saying that the blog was suspended for breaking some of Wordpress’s terms and conditions. A couple of weeks before this The Nugget Crew has set their own blog up on Wordpress. They were getting a lot of flack for trying to make as much money as possible out of inexperienced traders. They had been getting a lot of comments on their blog from people having a go at them and trying to undermine their strategies etc.

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Adster from the Nugget Crew was on the RT forum and I PM’d him to ask if he knew what was going on. He was convinced, as I was, that someone had reported their blog for containing links to promote their service. It seemed like too much of a coincidence that my blog was suspended at the same time and I felt that I had been reported for the same reason. I wasn’t happy. If someone had actually contacted Wordpress to report my blog, how pathetic was that?

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I contacted Wordpress and eventually got an answer that it was suspended because of the links to  my sales site. I have a link to the site on most posts so regardless of why it came to light I couldn’t argue that I was breaking their T’s and C’s. I promised to move the blog to my own webspace and they agreed to let the current blog be used until then.

I think its more likely that they were checking for outgoing links from some of the blogs. But who knows these days?

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I’m no webmaster. I know the basics and tend to teach myself something as and when I need it. I had looked at putting the blog onto the same domain as the tradesharktennis site but to be honest it didn’t look straight forward. It was easy to find instructions on google but there was always a bit of info missing. It just wasn’t going to work unless I could find idiot proof instructions. Previously I had decided not to bother but now I had no choice. It had to be done if i wanted the blog to continue.

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I spent most of Friday evening looking for the elusive instructions. I eventually managed to piece together several sets of instructions that seemed to plug my knowledge gaps. I started on the transfer of the blog files and wordpress software the next morning and after a couple of mistakes where I was installing the software to the wrong folder I had done it. Its actually quite straight forward – or would be if you did it a second time.

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You have a lot more options when you host it yourself. Lots of plugins to perform different tasks. Who’s online?There’s a plugin for that. How many visitors today? What have they looked at? What links have they clicked? Which sites have sent traffic to your blog? Plugins for them all.

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You can play around with the blog layout. You think you have it set up right and you find out that it doesn’t display properly in Internet Explorer 6. So you have to change things and test in different browsers ( why can’t they just upgrade their browser??)

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Every time  I look at the blog I see something that I want to change. I wasn’t happy with the extended header. I had added bits into it and it looked shite. I am very happy with the new one that shows a few of my green screens.

The site runs a little slow at times so I found a plugin to cache pages to speed it up. Seems a little better.

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There is a lot involved in keeping a daily blog up to date. You have to keep it interesting. In my case I have to get more tips right than I get wrong. I get in excess of 50 emails most days from people who read the blog or have signed up for the Trading Guide and have questions. The feeback I have had from the start has been excellent and that makes it all seem worthwhile. There has been criticism but its usually well intended and constructive and I don’t have a problem with that.

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So I had a blog and a sales site. What else might people want? I was sure I’d think of something…….

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In the final leg of the trilogy read about how the forum came about, the chatroom and making money from your blog.