Daily match picks

Second round
Sonego 2.42 v Tabilo 1.69
Due to start at 7 pm

Sonego 1-0 (Aug 2022, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %’s are better for Tabilo.

Sonego lost in the first round last year. 3 sets win over Griekspoor as underdog in the first round this week.
He reached the second round of the Australian Open. Three other ATP 2nd rounds in 2024. Third round in Shanghai. Second round of the US Open.

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Tabilo beat Tiafoe in 2 sets as underdog in the first round. He won the title in Auckland in January.

2024 ATP hard stats are better for Tabilo.

Back Tabilo around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.55.

I am often asked if the tips are intended to be backed and left to run.
The short answer is “NO”. The slightly longer answer is “HELL NO”. The long answer is that I very rarely leave a back bet to run until the end of the match. I can think of just 2 occasions in the last year. The clue is in the title of the site. The tips are for TRADING.
The aim of the match picks on here and in the Daily Trading Tips emails is to give you a value entry point. After that you need to manage your position. If you have little tennis trading experience here are some simple ways to manage the trade:
Once the price has reached the target price and you have entered your first trade you are waiting for a significant price move in your favour. This can be a break of serve or your player wins the set. Then you should remove some or all of your liability (risk).
If your player does not perform well and gets broken after you have entered the trade then you can exit with a loss.

 

Quarter Final
Anisimova 1.48 v Dolehide 3.00
Due to start at 5 pm

These tips are taken from the Tennis Trading Tips email. Get information, stats and tips on every main tour match 7 days a week. Every day, I research all the ATP and WTA matches and write trading notes for my own use. I refer to these notes during the trading session and will not trade a match until I have used the notes to remind me of my trading plan for that match.
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Anisimova 2-0. Most recent June 2020, clay, 3 sets. She won on hard in 2018, 2 sets. Hard win %’s are better for Anisimova.

Anisimova has come through the qual rounds. She beat Stephens in 2 sets in the fist round. 3 sets win over Pavlyuchenkova in the second round. 4th round at the Australian Open.

Dolehide beat Tsurenko in 3 sets in the first round. 3 sets win over Kasatkina in the second round. Kasatkina hit 14 double faults and was broken 8 times. Dolehide didn’t serve well either. She reached the third round in Indian Wells. Second round of the Australian Open. Final in Guadalajara in September.

2024 hard stats are better for Anisimova. 3 month stats favour her on serve.

Back Anisimova around 1.85 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.40.

Update: Anisimova broke first to lead 3-1. She was immediately broken back. Anisimova then broken again to lead 4-2 and held to lead 5-2, despite facing 4 bp’s in that game.
Anisimova served for the set at 5-3. She had 2 set points but was broken. The set went to a tie break which Dolehide won 7-5.
After the set, Anisimova took a medical time out. The second set was one sided in favour of Dolehide.
Dolehide won 7-6, 6-1.

I did not get my entry price early enough in set 1. Anisimova was not serving well so I laid her when she served for the set. I hedged when she was was broken and did not enter again.

I am often asked if the tips are intended to be backed and left to run.
The short answer is “NO”. The slightly longer answer is “HELL NO”. The long answer is that I very rarely leave a back bet to run until the end of the match. I can think of just 2 occasions in the last year. The clue is in the title of the site. The tips are for TRADING.
The aim of the match picks on here and in the Daily Trading Tips emails is to give you a value entry point. After that you need to manage your position. If you have little tennis trading experience here are some simple ways to manage the trade:
Once the price has reached the target price and you have entered your first trade you are waiting for a significant price move in your favour. This can be a break of serve or your player wins the set. Then you should remove some or all of your liability (risk).
If your player does not perform well and gets broken after you have entered the trade then you can exit with a loss.