Trading Tip – ATP Rio de Janeiro, JM Cerundolo v Darderi
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ATP Rio de Janeiro
JM Cerundolo v Darderi 1.39
Due to start at 9 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10
Darderi 3-2. Most recent Feb 2024, clay, Darderi in 3. All their matches were on clay. Cerundolo won in Feb 2024, 2 sets. Darderi won twice in Oct 2023, 2 sets in each. 2 sets win for Cerundolo in 2022. Clay win %’s favour Darderi.
Cerundolo lost in the 1st round as qualifier.
Final in Gstaad 2025, 3rd Round in Madrid 2025.
Darderi reached the 2nd round last season.
Title in Umag 2025, Title in Bastad 2025, Quarter finals in Hamburg 2025, Quarter finals in Munich 2025, Title in Marrakech 2025.
12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Darderi on serve.
Back Darderi around 1.85 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.50.
Match prediction: Darderi in 2 sets.
Update: I was not able to trade this match. I have rules that I follow in certain match/trade situations and will apply them to this match.
Darderi served first and was broken to 30. I’d have backed Darderi after the break. Cerundolo then had a hold to 30. In the next game, Darderi went 15-40 behind. I would have exited. The biggest reason for favouring Darderi in this match was his better serve stats!. He was broken to 15.
The next game was another hold to 15 for Cerundolo. He led 4-0. I would have been wondering if Darderi had an issue. I can’t find any mention of him calling an MTO (medical time out). I would have stayed out and watched for signs of improvement from him for the rest of the set.
In the next game, Darderi went 15-40 behind. He saved 4 break points in the game but eventually held serve. Cerundolo served at 4-1. He faced break points for the first time. He saved 2 and recovered to hold. I would have been encouraged by the fact that Darderi had put him under pressure. Darderi was broken again to 0 in the next game to hand the set to Cerundolo!
As there were slight signs of improvement, at least on the return side of things, and I had favoured Darderi pre match, I would have laid Cerundolo at the start of set 2.
Cerundolo served first and held to 30. Darderi then held to 30. In the next game, Cerundolo was broken to 30. I may have taken the reduced red at that point or may have stayed to give him chance to hold, which he did easily. I would then have exited.
Either way, I probably would not have continued with the match and would have taken the reduced red position.
There were no break points in the next 5 games. Cerundolo served at 3-5 and was broken to give the set to Darderi.
I don’t often bother with third sets in ATP matches. In this deciding set, there was just 1 break of serve which went to Cerundolo in the third game. Both players faced 2 break points in the remaining games.
Cerundolo won 6-1, 3-6, 6-4.
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