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ATP Brisbane
Kovacevic v Mpetshi Perricard 1.64
Due to start at 2:30 am
Confidence rating 7/10
1st meeting. 12 month hard win %’s are a little better for Kovacevic.
Kovacevic had a 2 sets win over Kyrgios in the 1st round. 3 tight sets win over Norrie as underdog in the 2nd round.
He reached the Final in Los Cabos 2025. He won 2 of huis last 10 on hard.
Perricard reached the Semi final last year. 3rd set tie break win over Paul in the 1st round. 3rd set tie break win in the 2nd round as slight favourite.
4th Round in Shanghai 2025, Semi finals in Winston-Salem 2025.
12 month ATP stats favour Perricard on serve. Stats for their last 10 on hard are stronger for Perricard.
Back Perricard around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70. Good chance of 3 sets.
Match Prediction: Mpetshi Perricard in 3 sets.
Update: Perricard served first. The first 2 games were holds of serve. In the 3rd game, Perricard went 15-40 behind. I laid Kovacevic. Perricard recovered to hold after saving 3 break points. I removed half my liability.
The next 5 games were holds. Only one of them saw the returner get to 30. The score was now 4-4. It was hard to pick a set winner. I decided to hedge so I could at least take a little profit into set 2.
The set went to a tie break which Kovacevic won.
Kovacevic served first in the second set. I laid him. He was broken to 15. I removed the liability on Kovacevic and left the green on Perricard.
The next 2 games were holds. Perricard served at 2-1. He faced a break point but recovered to hold. The next 6 games were easy holds and Perricard took the set. I hedged evenly. As there had been just 1 break of serve in the match, I was not keen to enter in the third set.
Only 1 of the games in the deciding set saw the receiver get more than 1 point. That game was the 4th game and was a break to 15 for Kovacevic.
Kovacevic won 7-6, 4-6, 6-3.
