ATP Bucharest
Baez 1.61 v Cobolli
Due to start at 12:00
This will be their 1st meeting. Clay win %’s are better for Baez.
Baez had a 3 sets win over Diallo in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Comesana in the q final. Easy win over Fucsovics in the semi final. He reached the final in Santiago. Title in Rio. 3rd round of the Olympics. Semis in Hamburg. 4th round in Rome.
Cobolli had a 3 sets win over Gasquet in the 2nd round. 2 tight sets win over Misolic in the q final. Easy win over Dzumhur in the semi final. He reached the semis in Geneva. 3rd round in Madrid.
12 month ATP stats are better for Cobolli on serve. Return stats favour Baez. Baez has the better ROI in their last 10 on clay. Recent performances are a little better for Baez. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Baez around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.80. Back Baez around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.
This Trading Tip is taken from the Trading Tips email service.
Trading tips for every main draw match, 7 days a week.
Sign up at https://blog.tradesharktennis.com/tennis-trading-tips/
Info for using the Trading Tip
Keep stakes low while learning the tennis markets.
The prices I give are where I suggest we enter the market. I am looking for the price to hit during set 1, and hopefully early in the set to give us time to get our exit price.
I will often say to lay Player A “around 1.25”. If the price gets close to that price we can enter. In this example we might enter at 1.27.
We are then looking for our exit price. I will post to remove liab or liability/risk/red at a particular price. I will often remove at least some of the liability if our player gets a break point and then remove any remaining liability when the break is complete. It can be frustrating if our player gets break points but doesn’t break. By removing some liability, we improve our break even price so if they don’t get the break of serve, we are still in profit.
If the advice is to lay the set 1 winner: If I am expecting the match to go to 3 sets, I want to lay whoever takes the first set. However, if the player who lost the set is serving first in set 2, it can be a good idea to wait for them to have their service game before laying. Even if they get broken, we can lay after that first service game. Laying a player when they are a set and a break ahead is a solid entry as the leading player will often relax and allow the other player back into the set.
As a general guide, until you are experienced enough to make your own choices and trading decisions, I recommend exiting the trade if your player gets broken AFTER you backed them. There will, of course be situations when they do recover but it’s best to protect your confidence as much as you should protect your bank.
