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WTA Austin Challenger
Zakharova 1.65 v Golubic
Due to start at 4 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10
1st meeting. Hard win %’s favour Golubic.
Zakharova beat Stephens in the qual round.
2nd round in Indian Wells, 2nd round in Austin. Semi finals in Cleveland 2025.
Golubic reached the Semi finals in Jiujiang 2025, Quarter finals in Osaka 2025, Quarter finals in Cleveland 2025.
12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Zakharova on serve. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Zakharova around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.
Match prediction: Zakharova in 3 sets.
Embed from Getty ImagesUpdate: Zakharova’s priced dropped to 1.48 pre match. Zakharova served first and held to 0. Golubic then held to 30.
In the next game, Zakharova was broken to 30. Her price only moved to 1.70. Due to the pre match price move, we were quite a distance away from my target price. Sometimes, I will back immediately after a break of the favourite as there is a decent chance of an immediate break back. This time, I waited for Golubic to, hopefully, hold serve before entering.
Golubic held serve to 30 in the next game. I backed Zakharova at 1.94. Zakharova then held to 0. In the next game, Golubic faced a break point at 30-40. I removed most of my liability at 1.57. Golubic was broken. The score was now 3-3.
The next 3 games were easy holds. Golubic served at 4-5 and faced a break point at “Advantage Zakharova”. I hedged at 1.21. Golubic recovered to hold serve. Zakharova then held to 0.
Golubic was broken to 0 to give the set to Zakharova.
Stats in that set were much stronger for Zakharova.
As I had expected the match to be tight, I laid Zakharova at the start of the second set. I laid at 1.14.
Zakharova served first and was broken to 15. As I had no liability from the lay due to profit from the first set, I waited to see if Golubic could hold. She did hold to 30 and I backed Zakharova at 1.32 using the same stake that I used for the lay. This gave me a green position on both players but a larger green on Zakharova.
2 games later, Zakharova broke back to get the score to 2-2. I had some green to play with so I laid her again at 1.16.
In the next game, Zakharova was broken to 0. I backed Zakharova at 1.30 to give a bigger green on her. In the next game, Zakharova broke again after Golubic had saved 2 break points.
One more go. I was pushing my luck now! I laid Zakharova at 1.18. She was broken to 15! I backed Zakharova at 1.34.
The score was now 3-4 with Golubic serving. Zakharova broke back in the next game! I was very tempted to go with another lay but talked myself out of it. I should have risked another one! Zakharova was broken and Golubic would serve for the set. She was, of course, broken to 15.
Zakharova then held to 15. There is a pattern in tennis that if you have a run of multiple breaks of serve, if one player then holds, the other player also holds. There had just been 7 consecutive breaks followed by an easy hold. Would Golubic also hold?
No.
She was broken to 15 and Zakharova took the set and the match.
Zakharova won 7-5, 7-5.
