Trading Tip – WTA Bad Homburg, Wozniacki v Svitolina

Wozniacki (WC) v Svitolina
Due to start at 4 pm

Head to head info from Tennis Profits

Grass win %’s in the last year are better for Svitolina.

Before last week, Wozniacki had not played on grass since Wimbledon 2019. Last week in Birmingham, she lost in straight sets to Elise Mertens.
She returned to the tour at the back end of 2023. She had missed most of 2020 and the whole 2021 and 2022 seasons. In September 2023 she made the 4th round at the US Open.
This season she reached the quarter finals on hard courts in Indian Wells but has struggled for consistency since.

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Svitolina reached the semis at Wimbledon last season. She has not played on grass since.
She started 2024 well, reaching the final in Auckland on hard courts. She reached the fourth round at the Australian Open and third round in Dubai. She also had some decent results in the clay season, making the fourth rounds in Rome and Fourth round at the French Open.

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We don’t have many stats on grass in the last 12 months for this match up. Hard court stats in 2024 are better for Svitolina on serve.
Overall, I have to give Svitolina the edge today.
Back Svitolina around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove some or all liability at 1.60.

Update: Svitolina broke in the first game of the match. The next 3 games were also breaks of serve. A late break for Wozniacki gave her the chance to serve for the set. She held serve to 30.
I laid Wozniacki.
In set 2, the first break again went to Svitolina. She took a 4-1 lead (single break) and I hedged. She could not hold on to the leads and they went to a tie break. The tie break was fairly close but went to Svitolina.
In set 3 it was again Svitolina who took the first break to lead 2-1. The match was suspended to be completed on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, as Svitolina had been ahead but gave the break back in the previous 2 sets, I laid her. Wozniack broke back to get to 3-3 and I hedged.
Wozniacki took another break to lead 5-3. I laid her. When she went 0-40 behind, I hedged again.
Svitolina broke and held to get to 5-5 but Wozniacki took the next 2 games to win the match.

Wozniacki won 6-3, 6-7, 7-5.

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