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WTA Brisbane
Fernandez 1.60 v Yastremska
Due to start at 1 am
Confidence rating 7.5/10
Fernandez 2-1. Most recent June 2025, grass, Yastremska in 2. Fernandez won on hard in Feb 2023, 3 sets. She won on hard in July 2021, 3 sets. Hard win %’s are better for Fernandez.
Fernandez reached the Semi finals in Hong Kong 2025, Title in Osaka 2025, 3rd Round at the US Open 2025, Title in Washington 2025, 3rd Round in Doha 2025, Quarter finals in Abu Dhabi 2025, 3rd Round at the Australian Open 2025.
Yastremska lost in the 1st round last year. 2 tie breaks win over Gibson as favourite in the 1st round.
4th Round in Montreal 2025, 3rd Round in Indian Wells 2025, 3rd Round in Dubai 2025, 3rd Round at the Australian Open 2025, Quarter finals in Hobart 2025.
12 month WTA stats are stronger for Fernandez. Return stats are fairly even. Stats for their last 10 on hard are stronger for Fernandez.
Back Fernandez around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.
Match prediction: Fernandez in 2 sets.
Update: Firstly, what on Earth was Fernandez doing?
Yastremska served first and held to 30. In the next game, Fernandez had a game point but couldn’t take it and was broken. I backed Fernandez.
In the next game, Yastremska went 0-40 behind and I removed almost all my liability. Yastremska recovered to hold and she led 3-0. The next 2 games were easy holds.
Fernandez served at 1-4 and was broken to 15! Yastremska easily served out the set.
In set 2, Fernandez served first. Her stats and performance in the first set were poor so I did not add to my position. I waited to see if she would improve in this set. In the first game, she went 0-40 behind. She recovered to hold. That was followed by a very easy hold for Yastremska. In the next game, Fernandez went 15-40 behind. Again, she recovered to hold but I had seen enough. I exited for virtually a scratch trade.
Another hold to 0 for Yastremska to get to 2-2. Fernandez didn’t win another game.
Yastremska won 6-1, 6-2.
