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WTA Brisbane
Muchova v Alexandrova 1.84
Due to start at 2:30 am
Confidence rating 7/10
Alexandrova 4-1. Most recent Feb 2025, indoors, Alexandrova in 2. She won on clay in Apr 2021, 3 sets. Muchova won indoors in 2019, 2 sets. Hard win %’s are better for Muchova.
Muchova needed a 3rd set tie break against Tomljanovic in the 2nd round.
She reached the Quarter finals in Tokyo 2025, 4th Round in Beijing 2025, Quarter finals at the US Open 2025, 4th Round in Montreal 2025, 4th Round in Indian Wells 2025, Semi finals in Dubai 2025.
Alexandrova lost in the 2nd round last season. 2 sets win over Kenin in the 2nd round.
Final in Ningbo 2025, 3rd Round in Wuhan 2025, Final in Seoul 2025, 4th Round at the US Open 2025, Final in Monterrey 2025, 4th Round in Cincinnati 2025, Semi finals in Doha 2025.
12 month WTA stats are a little better for Muchova on serve and favour Alexandrova on return. Stats for their last 10 favour Alexandrova on serve.
Lay Muchova around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.
Match prediction: Alexandrova in 3 sets.
Update: Alexandrova was broken in the first game. I laid Muchova. Muchova went 0-40 behind in the next game and I removed half my liability. Alexandrova was then broken again in the next game! I again laid Muchova to add to my position. In the next game, Muchova went 15-40 behind and I removed most of my liability, leaving the green on Alexandrova.
The next 2 games were holds. Alexandrova served at 3-3 and was broken to 0. In the next game, Muchova faced a break point. This time I hedged evenly. Alexandrova occasionally has matches where she really struggles on serve and she had not started well at all! Muchova recovered to hold. The next 2 games were holds and Muchova took the set.
Alexandrova served first in the second set. She was broken to 30. Muchova was now a set and a break ahead which is very often an excellent entry point. I used some of the profit from the first set to lay Muchova. 3 games later, Muchova was broken and I hedged evenly.
A late break for Muchova gave her the chance to serve for the match. She did so successfully.
Muchova won 6-4, 7-5.
