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Download link >> 24th May
WTA French Open
Osorio 1.75 v Alexandrova
Due to start at 3:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10
Osorio 2-0. Most recent Oct 2022, hard, 2 sets. She won on grass in June 2021, 2 sets. Clay win %’s slightly favour Osorio.
Osorio lost in the 1st round last year.
Quarter final in Rabat 2026. CH semi in May. 2nd round in Madrid 2026. 2nd round in Bogota 2026.
Alexandrova reached the 4th round last season.
2nd round in Stuttgart 2026. Quarter finals in Hamburg 2025.
12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Alexandrova on serve. Stats for 2026 are a little better for Osorio.
Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Osorio around 1.45 and remove liability at 1.90.
Match prediction: Alexandrova in 3 sets.
Embed from Getty ImagesUpdate: Alexandrova served first. She held to 30.
0-1
Osorio went 15-40 behind. I placed a small lay of Alexandrova at 1.77. I was expecting a close match. Alexandrova saved 3 break point and held serve.
1-1
Alexandrova was broken to 15. I hedged at 1.50 on Osorio’s ladder.
2-1
The next 3 games were easy holds.
3-1
3-2
4-2
Alexandrova was broken after leading 40-0. I laid Osorio at 1.26.
5-2
Osorio faced a break point at 40-A. Her price moved to 1.31. Only a small gain. I was hoping for a break. If she wasn’t broken, the price move against me would be small. I waited for the break. She saved the break point and eventually held serve. I hedged at 1.24. Just 2 ticks loss.
I did not want to stay in the lay of Osorio into the second set as Alexandrova would serve first.
6-2
Stats for that set were even on first serve percentages and first serve points won percentages. Alexandrova was terrible on second serve points won. She won 1 of 9 on second serve.
Alexandrova served first in the second set. In a long game, she saved a break point and was eventually broken. I laid Osorio at 1.13.
1-0
Osorio went 0-40 behind. I backed Osorio at 1.21 using the same stake that I used for the lay. This increased my green on Osorio. She saved 4 break points and was eventually broken.
1-1
Alexandrova was broken to 30. I laid Osorio at 1.14
2-1
Osorio saved a break point but was broken again. I backed her at 1.25 using the same stake that I used for the lay.
2-2
Alexandrova was broken for a third time. I laid Osorio at 1.14.
3-2
Osorio was broken to 30! I backed her at 1.27 using the same stake again. I now had green on Alexandrova and a larger green on Osorio.
3-3
Alexandrova held to 15. Osorio held after saving 2 break points.
3-4
4-4
Alexandrova was broken again to 15. I did not want to push my luck! I stayed out.
5-4
Osorio served out the set to 30.
6-4
Osorio won 6-2, 6-4.
