Kudermetova (2.8) v Mertens (1.55)
Due to start at 4:30 pm
Mertens has won both their previous matches. They last met in August in the Cincinnati tournament. She won o a hard court in straight sets. She won indoors in Moscow in February 2016 in 3 sets.
Overall results favour Mertens in the last year. Her indoor results are also stronger.
Kudermetova didn’t lose a game in the first round but needed 3 sets to beat Arantxa Rus in the last round. She was only broken twice in their 3 sets. Kudermetova reached the quarter finals in Ostrava as a qualifier last month.
Mertens has needed 3 sets in both her matches this week. Her serve has come under a lot of pressure in both matches. She has faced a total of 22 break points and has been broken 8 times. She also reached the quarter finals in Ostrava.
I expect to see a higher price on Mertens but I also expect her to win. She is making hard work of her service games but is the stronger player on return. Back Mertens after she gets broken or loses the first set.
Update: Mertens was broken in her first service game and went 0-3 down down before recovering.
Mertens won 6-4, 6-1.
I have had a handful of questions in the last few months asking about the advice that I give on this blog and also on Twitter. The most common question is asking if the tips are intended to be backed and left to run.
The short answer is “NO”. The slightly longer answer is “HELL NO”. The long answer is that I very rarely leave a back bet to run until the end of the match. I can think of just 2 occasions in the last year. The clue is in the title of the site. The tips are for TRADING.
The aim of the match picks on here and in the Daily Trading Tips emails is to give you a value entry point. After that you need to manage your position. If you have little tennis trading experience here are some simple ways to manage the trade:
Once the price has reached the target price and you have entered your first trade you are waiting for a significant price move in your favour. This can be a break of serve or your player wins the set. Then you should remove some or all of your liability (risk).
If your player does not perform well and gets broken after you have entered the trade then you can exit with a loss.