Osaka (1.61) v Azarenka (2.6)
Due to start at 9 pm
they have played 4 times. Each won 2 although Azarenka’s last “win” was by walkover in the Cincinnati final 2 weeks ago. Azarenka won their only hard court match which was at the Australian Open in 2016. Both Osaka’s wins were on clay. She won in 3 sets at the French Open last season and in Rome in 2018.
Overall results in the last 12 months and in 2020 are strong for both players but slightly favour Osaka. She also has a slight lead on hard courts. Stats for the tournament are better for Azarenka for everything except service holds. Osaka leads that stat 93% v 78%.
Osaka’s game has got stronger with each match. In the Cincinnati tournament and in the early rounds of this one she seemed to be carry a slight injury. She played a superb match against Jennifer Brady in the semi final. She dropped the second set but actually only faced 2 break points and was broken just once.
Azarenka has lost 2 sets so far including 1 against Serena in the semi finals. She weathered a real storm in that one with Serena trying to get the job done in straight sets. She really seems to be enjoying her tennis since the tour resumed.
This should be a great final and I think we will see 3 sets. We have some value on Azarenka. Lay Osaka if she gets an early break of serve. Remove the liability at 1.60. Back Osaka if she goes a break behind or loses the first set.
I had a few questions yesterday about what markets I use. It is always the match odds market on the Betfair Exchange.
Update: It WAS an excellent final! Azarenka was unplayable in the first set and looked like she would over power Osaka. She easily took the set. In the second set she took a 2-0 lead but her level dropped a little and that allowed Osaka to get back into the match. Osaka broke back immediately and took another two breaks of serve to level the match.
Osaka took a 4-1 lead in the deciding set but Azarenka eventually broke back. Another Osaka break gave the opportunity to serve for the title which she managed to do.
Osaka won 1-6, 6-3, 6-3