Medvedev (1.95) v Thiem (2.04)
Due to start at 11 pm
Dominic Thiem leads their previous matches 2-1. They last met on a hard court at the Rogers Cup, Canada in August last year. Daniil Medvedev won comfortably in 2 sets. Thiem’s wins were on a clay court in Barcelona in April last year and on an indoor court In St Petersburg in 2018. That match went to a third set tie break.
Overall results in the last 12 months are strong for both players but slightly favour Thiem. Hard court results are excellent for both men but favour Medvedev.
Medvedev hasn’t lost a set so far. His toughest test was against Andrey Rublev in the last round. Two of the three sets went to tie breaks. He didn’t face a single break point. He has been broken 3 times in 15 sets. He reached the final in 2019 losing to Nadal in 5 sets.
Thiem has lost just 1 set in the tournament. That was in the third round against Marin Cilic. He has been broken 8 times.
Stats for the tournament favour Medvedev on serve and everything else favours Thiem but there is very little between them. The sets are going to be very close and I won’t be surprised if it goes to a fifth set. I give Medvedev the edge on these courts. Back him around 2.30. Lay the set 1 winner.