Daily match picks

ATP Washington, Semi Final

Sinner v Brooksby

Due to start at 9 pm

1st meeting. Long term overall win % are better for Brooksby. His long term hard win % are also better. 41 from his last 50. Sinner won 31 of 50.

Neither player has lost a set. Most of Brooksby’s matches were in Challengers or ITF’s. His big serve has been causing real problems to his higher ranked opponents. He has beaten Anderson, Tiafoe and Aliassime this week. He was favourite against Millman in the last round.

Sinner’s opponents this week have all performed well recently. His toughest match was against Korda in the second round. Sinner beat him in 2 tie break sets.

Stats for the tournament favour Brooksby on serve. He has held 97% of service games ( Sinner 90%). Return stats are close but slightly favour Sinner.

Some value on Brooksby. Good chance of 3 sets. Lay Sinner around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.00. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: Brooksby had 3 set points at 0-40 on Sinner’s serve in the first set but didn’t take them. Sinner took the set in a tie break. Brooksby had not lost a set all week and the disappointment of losing the set was took much. Sinner broke him twice in the 2nd set.

Sinner won 7-6, 6-1.

 

WTA Cluj, second round

Cristian v Petkovic

Due to start around midday

1st meeting.

Long term overall win % are quite even. Cristian has better long term clay win %. She won 29 of her last 50. Petkovic won 25 of 50. Their clay results in the last 12 months and in 2021 are even.

Cristian made a slow start against Jani in the last round and was broken at the start. That isn’t unusual for her but once she sorted her serve out she was in control. She lost just 3 games. She reached the qfinals in Palermo 3 weeks ago.

Petkovic has found some improved form recently and made the final in Hamburg and a semi final in Belgrade last week. Petkovic can win this but will probably need 3 sets.

Back Petkovic around 2.00 to 2.10 and remove some or all liability at 1.60. Lay the set 1 winner.

WTA San Jose, second round

Riske v Konjuh

Due to start at 11pm

H2H 1-1. Most recent Aug 2016, hard, Riske in 3 sets. Konjuh won on grass in 2015.

Long term overall win % are much better for Konjuh. She won 33 of her last 50. Riske won 24 of 50. On hard courts, Konjuh won 30 of her last 50. Riske won 25 of 50.

Konjuh’s hard results are stronger in the last year and in 2021. She has come through the qual rounds this week and beat Bouzkova in the main draw in 3 close sets.

Riske has been in poor form for a while but beat Vandeweghe in 2 sets in the last round. Riske’s serve wasn’t great. She hit 7 double faults which is unlike her. Vandeweghe’s 2nd serve was poor.

Riske will need her best form to win this and we have not seen that from her for quite a while. Back Konjuh around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove some or all liability around 1.65.

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