Daily match picks

WTA Cincinnati, 3rd round

Kerber v Ostapenko

Due to start at 4 pm

H2H 1-1. Most recent may 2021, clay, Ostapenko in 3. Kerber won on grass in 2018.

Both have won 30 of their last 50 matches. Kerber has the better long term win % on hard courts. Ostapenko has won 22 of her last 50 on hard. Stats for the tournament favour Ostapenko on serve! She has held 78% of service games. Kerber has been better on return.

Kerber has beaten Sakkari and Svitolina this week. Kerber has found some form in 2021 that I thought was beyond her. She reached the 3rd round in Rome on clay but it was the grass season that gave her back her confidence. She won her home tournament in Hamburg and backed that up with a semi at Wimbledon.

Ostapenko was a set down to Brady in the last round before Brady had to retire with a leg injury.

Back Kerber around 2.20 and remove liability around 1.60. Fair chance of 3 sets if Ostapenko continues to serve well.

Update: Tight first set. Kerber faced 2 bp when serving at 2-3 and we got our entry price. He held serve. In the next game Kerber had a break point and we had our exit price! Job done.

A late break gave the set to Ostapenko. Kerber ran away with set 2 and broke Ostapenko 3 times. Set 3 was a bit of a mess. Ostapenko took a 3-0 lead. Kerber broke back , was broken again and broke back again for 4-4. Another break for Kerber gave her the chance to serve for the match. Guess what? She was broken. yet another break meant that Kerber was serving for the match for a second time. This time she held to 0.

Kerber won 4-6, 6-2, 7-5.

WTA Cincinnati, 3rd round

Krejcikova v Muguruza

Due to start at 7:30 pm

Muguruza 1-0 (Mar 2021, hard, 2 sets). Long term hard win % favour Muguruza. She has 38 wins from her last 50. Krejcikova won 33 of 50.

Krejcikova beat Yastremska in 2 sets in the last round. She faced 7 break points but was not broken. She beat Kasatkina in the 1st round. Krejcikova looked a little vulnerable in the last round but Yast was not able to take advantage.

Muguruza was comfortable in the last round against Garcia. She faced just 2 break points and was not broken. She reached the q finals in Tokyo. In March, she won the title in Dubai and reached the final in Doha.

Back Muguruza around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.75. Fair chance of 3 sets.

Update: Krejcikova made the better start and took the set 6-1. Laying the set winner proved profitable but it would have been tough to stay in the trade. There were no breaks in the second set and they went to a tie break. Muguruza took the set. Krejcikova was the stronger player in set 3.

Krejcikova won 6-1, 6-7, 6-2.

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WTA Cincinnati, First round

Muchova v Konta

Due to start at 4pm

1st meeting. Long term win % favour Muchova. She has stronger hard court results in the last year and in 2021.

Konta won 4 of her last 10 on hard. She reached the 3rd round last week. Her opponent retired in the 1st round and Konta beat Svitolina in 3 sets in the 2nd round. She then withdrew from the 3rd round.

Muchova made the semis at the Aus Open. Last week she lost to Dodin in 3 sets. She has shown decent form this season and reached the 3rd round at the French Open plus the q finals at Wimbledon. She made the semis at the Australian Open in Feb.

I am going with Muchova. Back her above 2.10 and remove some or all liability at 1.65.

Update: Konta made the better start and won the only break of the set. When she served for the set Muchova had 2 break points but couldn’t convert them. In the second set, there were no breaks of serve. Each player only faced break points in 1 service game. The set was settled in a tie break that went to Muchova. She easily won set 3.

Muchova won 3-6, 7-6, 6-2.

WTA Cincinnati, First round

McNally v Yastremska

Due to start at 10 pm

1st meeting. Long term hard win % are a little better for Yastremska. McNally has better hard results this season.

Yastremska was suspended in Jan as she was found to have a banned substance in her system. So, her season started in July. She took Stephens to 3 sets last week. If she continues to improve, and also her match fitness will get better with more matches then her results will get stronger.

McNally reached the q finals in Guadalajara in March but most of her other wins were in ITF’s or qual rounds.

Back Yastremska around 2.00 and remove liab at 1.55.

Update: McNally took the first break of serve and led 4-2. This was enough to give us our entry price. Yastremska broke back 3 games later for 4-4. She was immediately broken again. She broke straight back herself. The set went to a tie break that Yastremska won.

In set 2, McNally again took the first break of serve but was broken back. They ended up in another tie break which, again, Yastremska won.

Yastremska won 7-6, 7-6.

These tips are taken from the Tennis Trading Tips email. Get information, stats and tips on every main tour match 7 days a week. Every day, I research all the ATP and WTA matches and write trading notes for my own use. I refer to these notes during the trading session and will not trade a match until I have used the notes to remind me of my trading plan for that match.
I will email you my notes 7 days a week.

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