Daily match picks

WTA Rogers Cup. Quarter Final

Pliskova v Sorribes Tormo

Due to start at 6:30 pm

Pliskova 1-0 (Jan 2017, hard, 2 easy sets). Both have strong long term hard court win %. Pliskova won 32 of her last 50. Sorribes Tormo won 30 of 50. Sorribes Tormo has a better win % on hard in the last 12 months and in 2021.

Sorribes Tormo beat Samsonova in the 2nd round and Siniakova in 3 sets in the last round.

Pliskova needed a 3rd set tie break to beat Vekic. In the last round she easily took the 1st set from Anisimova but gave up a break lead in set 2. She won the set in a tie break. Pliskova is not quite at her best this week which is why we have 1.50 on her.

Sorribes Tormo has won 2 of her 12 matches against top 10 players. This season she won 1 of 4 with her win coming against Barty at the Olympics. Her only other win was over Osaka in a Fed Cup tie on clay.

Back Pliskova above 1.90 and remove liability around 1.45.

Update: Pliskova was broken first. That started a series of 4 breaks of serve. I backed her after she was broken each time and removed some liability after she broke back. Pliskova then got another break of serve and served out the set. Sorribes Tormo had given everything she had in the first set and didn’t win a game in set 2.
Pliskova won 6-4, 6-0.

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WTA Rogers Cup, Second round

Pliskova v Vekic

Due to start at 5:30 pm

Pliskova 5-1. Most recent June 2021, grass, Pliskova in 2 sets. She won their last 5 matches. Long term hard win % favour Pliskova. She has 32 wins from her last 50. Vekic won 27 of 50. Win %’s on hard in the last year are even.

Pliskova has not lost her first match at the Rogers Cup since 2015. Pliskova reached the 3rd round at the Aus Open. Since then she has only managed 2 wins in a week on hard courts at the Olympics.

This is the first time in 4 visits that Vekic won a match in Montreal. She easily beat Van Uytvanck in the last round. Van Uytvanck had a nightmare on serve. Vekic reached the 4th round at the Aus Open. She also reached the 3rd round at the Olympics.

If Pliskova is not near her best today then this can be tight. Back Pliskova around 2.10 and remove liability around 1.55. In the last 12 months, after losing set 1 on hard courts, she has only won set 2 once and lost all those matches (9). Don’t back her if she loses the set!

Update: Pliskova was broken first. We got our entry price. A few games later she broke back for 3-3 and held her own serve. In the next game Vekic faced 3 break points and we easily got our exit price. Vekic went on to take the set.

Despite her terrible stats when losing the first set, Pliskova took the lead in set 2 but only after saving 3 break points in her first service game. She took the set 6-2. Pliskova took the 3rd set in a tie break after giving away a break lead.

Pliskova won 4-6, 6-2, 7-6.