Daily match picks

Round Robin stage

Djokovic (1.46) v Medvedev (3.1)

Due to start at 8 pm

Djokovic leads their previous matches 4-2.

Their most recent meeting was in January 2020.Djokovic won on a hard court in 3 sets. Their only indoor match was in 2017 when Medvedev retired. Their only match that ended in straight sets went to Djokovic on grass in 2017.

Djokovic has better overall results. Both players have very strong indoor records.

Djokovic was fairly comfortable against Diego Schwartzman 2 days ago despite being broken early in the match. He has a superb record at the year end finals and since they moved to London’s O2 Arena he has won it 4 times (2015, 14, 13, 12) and made the final in 2018 and 2017. Last year he was recovering from shoulder surgery and didn’t make it through the round robin stages.

Medvedev had a straight sets win over Alex Zverev who had a really poor match. Zverev struggled partly due to Medvedev’s strong play but also seemed to have other issues that were distracting him. Perhaps there has been a development in his case of being accused of assault by an ex girlfriend. Whatever his problem was it really affected his confidence. Having broken the Medvedev serve in the opening game of the match Zverev seemed almost scared to hit a second serve and immediately handed the break of serve back. Medvedev has been in strong form recently and won the indoor title at the Paris Masters 2 weeks ago.

Medvedev always seems to give Djokovic problems and he should take a set today. Lay Djokovic around 1.25 and remove some or all of your liability at 1.40. Lay the winner of the first set.

 

Round Robin stage

Medvedev (1.82) v Zverev (2.2)

Due to start at 8 pm

Zverev leads their previous matches 5-2. They last met indoors in the Paris Masters final 2 weeks ago. Medvedev won in 3 sets. Zverev won at this tournament last year. He won in the round robin stage in 2 close sets. Medvedev has won 2 of their last 3 meetings.

Overall results in the last 12 months are very even. Zverev has the slightest of edges. Indoor results favour Zverev.

Medvedev made his first appearance at the year end finals last season but lost all 3 of his round robin matches. He lost in straight sets to Tsitsipas and Zverev and took a set from Nadal. Medvedev reached the quarter finals in Vienna before beating Zverev in the Paris Masters final.

Zverev won both Cologne titles indoors last month as well as reaching that final in Paris. He won this tournament in 2018 and reached the semi finals in 2019.

We have some value on Zverev as this should be another close match. There is a very good chance that it goes to 3 sets. Lay Medvedev around 1.50 and remove some or all of your liability at 2.00. Lay the winner of the first set.