Daily match picks

WTA Cleveland, Second Round

Begu v Hercog

Due to start at 11 pm

Begu 3-0. Most recent Sep 2015, hard, 3 sets. Their 2 hard court matches were in 2015.

Long term overall results favour Begu and she also leads in long term hard court win %.

Begu had a strong win over Alexandrova in the last round as huge underdog. She was broken just once.

Hercog’s recent form has not been great. She struggled a little on 2nd serve in the last round but won fairly comfortably. Also only broken once. Her best results are on clay but even good weeks on the dirt are rare in the last year.

Back Begu around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability around 1.60.

Update: Hercog got the first break of serve and also held her own serve. That got us our target price. She was broken when serving for the set. The set went to a tie break that Begu won. Begu broke first in the 2nd set. She was also broken when serving for the set. She broke again straight away. This time she served out the match.

Begu won 7-6, 7-5.

These tips are taken from the Tennis Trading Tips email. Get information, stats and tips on every main tour match 7 days a week. Every day, I research all the ATP and WTA matches and write trading notes for my own use. I refer to these notes during the trading session and will not trade a match until I have used the notes to remind me of my trading plan for that match.
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ATP Cincinnati, Final

Rublev v Zverev

Due to start at 9:30 pm

Zverev 4-1. Most recent June 2020, clay, Rublev in 2 sets. That was an exhibition during the Covid lockdown.

Both have excellent long term hard court win %. Rublev won 40 of his last 50. Zverev won 37 of 50. Slightly better results for Zverev in the last 12 months and in 2021.

Zverev was up by a set and a break in the semi final but was broken twice and lost the 2nd set. In the 3rd set he went a double break down at 1-4. He got one of the breaks back and then broke Tsitsipas again when the Greek player served for the match. The set went to a tie break which Zverev won fairly comfortably.

Rublev lost the 1st set to Medvedev who had several MTO’s for his right arm. Rublev was broken 3 times in that first set. In set 2, a single late break was enough to give the set to Rublev. Despite Medvedev being injured he was able to keep the deciding set on serve until 3-3. He was then broken twice.

I am going with Zverev to win. I’m not sure that Rublev would have beaten Medvedev if Medvedev was 100%. Zverev started the semi final strongly. After the 1st set he was getting very angry about Tsitsipas taking an extended break between the sets. His anger won him the 1st game of set 2 but he fell apart a bit until half way through set 3. He fought back well.

Back Zverev around 2.00 and remove liability at around 1.55. Lay the set 1 winner.

These tips are taken from the Tennis Trading Tips email. Get information, stats and tips on every main tour match 7 days a week. Every day, I research all the ATP and WTA matches and write trading notes for my own use. I refer to these notes during the trading session and will not trade a match until I have used the notes to remind me of my trading plan for that match.
I will email you my notes 7 days a week.

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